Cut Bank, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

974
FXUS65 KTFX 191349
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
750 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably mild temperatures and periods of windy
  conditions continue through Saturday.

- A Pacific trough and cold front brings cooler  temperatures and a
brief period of showery conditions this  weekend.

- Temperatures briefly warm again early next week before
  another Pacific cold front brings more scattered showers, windy
  conditions, and cooler temperatures around the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 103 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will remain
entrenched over the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the
first half of the weekend. The Northern Rockies will be situated
on the northern periphery of this feature, which will continue to
bring dry and unseasonably warm conditions while strong westerly
flow aloft maintains periods of windy conditions, scattered to
broken mid- and higher level cloudiness, and even a few isolated
showers. The combination of H700 flow between 60 and 70 kts,
mountain wave activity, and diurnal mixing will produce the
strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains west
of I15 for today.

A stronger 60 to 80 kt H700 jet still looks to cross the Northern
Rockies Friday through early Saturday in advance of an
approaching Pacific trough/cold front and bring an opportunity for
more widespread stronger winds. The focus will initially be along
the Rocky Mountain Front/adjoining plains and over and near the
central MT island ranges. By Saturday portions of southwest
Montana will begin to see stronger winds with 50 kt H700 flow
coming in from the southwest in addition to scattered shower
activity helping transfer some of these stronger winds to the
surface. Winds decrease in a northwest to southeast fashion by
Saturday evening.

Ridging aloft looks to build in briefly early next week before
another Pacific trough and cold front moves through Wednesday into
Thursday. It`s kind of early to start interrogating some of
specifics with this system, but the ensembles are hinting at
stronger end H700/H500 flow on the order of 70 to 100 kts. Should
this occur, then we may be looking at another higher end wind
event depending on diurnal timing and other factors. - RCG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Windy conditions continue through Saturday...

Stronger winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains west
of I15 will be powered by a 60 to 70 kt H700 jet, mountain wave
activity, and diurnal mixing. This will result in winds being a
little stronger than the previous couple of days. It won`t be out
of the question for wind gusts to exceed 90 mph (40 to 60% chance)
for Rocky Mountain Front locations along and west of the highway
89 corridor. Other high plains locations west of I15 will see
gusts up to 75 mph. Other plains locations will generally see
winds gusting in the 35 to 55 mph range. The Geyser area in Judith
Basin County was given consideration to add to the warning, but
held off for now due to the short duration and localized area of
the higher winds. Impacts look to be greatest for those operating
high profile and or light weight vehicles.

Friday through Saturday, stronger winds aloft associated with the
Pacific trough and cold front look to sweep through the Northern
Rockies. The uncertainty that impacts the magnitude of winds for
northern areas will be how fast a Canadian front moves south and
undercuts the elevated winds aloft. The GFS suite typically
handles these scenarios a little better than other ensembles and
times the front to move southward into the plains sometime
Saturday morning or early afternoon. This suggests the opportunity
for stronger winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains
will roughly run from Friday morning through early Saturday before
shifting the focus southward into southwest MT. NBM probabilities
for 60 mph wind gusts on Friday and Saturday continue to be less
than ideal for high wind products, but it still shapes the normal
problem areas with a rough 30 to 60% chance, including the Rocky
Mountain Front, plains west of of I15, central MT 87/200 corridor,
and the narrow south to north oriented valleys of southwest MT.
Given the meteorological set up, I went ahead and put a watch out
for the higher confidence locations with anticipation of better
model agreement prior to upgrading to warnings. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
19/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the duration of the
1912/2012 TAF period beneath scattered to broken upper level
cloudiness. Biggest concern over the next 24 hours will be
continued strong and gusty southwest to west surface winds,
particularly along and west of the I-15 corridor across Central
and North Central Montana. Extensive mountain wave activity will
continue through 20/06Z over these areas, with instances of low
level wind shear across portions of Central and North Central
Montana. - Moldan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm, breezy, and dry conditions are expected through the end of the
work week as we remain under the northern edge of an upper level
ridge. While this will result in elevated fire weather conditions,
RH values outside of the southwest MT valleys should mostly remain
above 20%, and recent snowfall and snowmelt should keep fine fuels
and soils moist enough to prevent conditions from becoming critical.
The southwestern valleys, however, will be much drier and will
continue to be monitored for elevated to critical fire weather
conditions. - RCG/Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  51  72  51 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  63  45  65  43 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  69  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  74  42  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  62  27  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  72  42  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  71  44  73  45 /  10   0  10   0
LWT  67  46  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for East Glacier
Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-
Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for
East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and
Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-
Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for
Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below
5000ft-Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith
Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Western and Central
Chouteau County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls